Most groups are now tied up and I fully expect Portugal to qualify by 5pm - beat Luxembourg and they are through ; a draw may well be enough depending on Serbia (need a win and some luck)' vs Ukraine (qualified a long time ago, had a fantastic campaign). England's group is tied up with them and the Czechs going to the Euros ; and France/Turkey the top two from tonight's final groups. So quite a few glamour friendlies today.
Playoffs are where it is looking exciting. At present it looks like this, but it'll no doubt change by Tuesday, but of now it is.
All games are one-legged ties, and the final will be in a draw on Friday to decide where the final one-leg game will be ; but one team will be at home.
D - Georgia v Belarus (Tblisi) and North Macedonia v Kosovo (Skopje) e.g let's say Georgia and Kosovo get through ; UEFA pull Pristina out - the final will be between Kosovo at home vs Georgia and one of those two teams will be going to the Euros.
C - Scotland v Bulgaria/Israel/Romania ; Norway v Serbia. There will be a draw between the potential Scots opponents as some will one team will go to Pot A and one to Pot B.
B - most teams have qualified outright from here or have a chance of. Bosnia Herz v many potential teams including NI/Wales/Ireland.
A - only team 'qualified' here is Iceland and again, we'll need to wait til Tuesday to see how it is looking - but most likely they will be the only team from A needing a playoff so the Bulgarian/Israeli and Romanian (and possibly more lower teams down the C list) will be drawn to go in the A and B playoffs.
Err, maybe should have waited til Tuesday to try and mock up the playoffs. Considering Ireland/Switzerland and Denmark may all need a playoff.
Playoffs were all decided via the Nations League campaign and the higher seed you were for that, the better chances you have of securing a playoff.
The A Nations Leagues had - Germany, Holland, Portugal, England, Poland, Italy, Switzerland, Belgium, Croatia, Spain, France and Iceland. Iceland had the Swiss and Belgium in their group and Iceland finished dead last - Played 4 lost 4 -12 goal difference. They most likely will be the only team needing a playoff from the A group of Nations League teams. Northern Ireland finished last as well in their B group with Bosnia and Austria - again didn't even get a point ; but thanks to being in the A and B groups - most of these groups had the top and second seeds and all of A has qualified outright (except Iceland) and B all but 4/5 teams have qualified outright and 2/3 may well in the last few days.
The TL ; DR - coming 3rd or 4th or even 5th in your qualifying group doesn't matter unless you had a great Nations League campaign. Let's take my own nation Scotland, we had a successful campaign - we won our group against Israel and Albania and guaranteed last year a Playoff. We could still finish 4th and up until a game ago, we were 5th in our group, we could well have finished 5th in our group yet had the insurance policy of the Playoffs from a year ago.
I'm making a pig's ear of this, and need the ol' wordsmith himself in here to clear up this wall of text but my final TL ; DR for anyone wondering why teams in third aren't in the playoffs is the Nations League. The only example I can think of (it looks and may change,that most teams who are in the Playoffs will finish third in their qualifying group too ; but Slovenia - might finish third) and the difference between them and Iceland getting to the playoffs (both will finish 3rd in qualifying) is Slovenia came last in their C group Nations League whilst Iceland in the A pot.
Yes, all clear now folks! Sure you are!
P.S. Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and Ireland have all secured a playoff. Wales and Ireland can qualify outright tomorrow and Tuesday - Ireland v Denmark and Wales v Hungary - both need to win ; but both don't need only. No wanting results in other games to go a certain way. A Welsh and Irish win will see them at the Euros. Failing that, they'll be in the playoffs (and Wales, NI, Ire may well meet each other in the playoffs depending on the draw).
AND P.P.S the playoffs are not until March ; and the Euro group draw is in December - so you've have loons like me dreaming of the Euros/knowing the group before it all gets cruely taken away from me with a 0-3 loss at Hampden to Bulgaria.
